The aurora forecast is two forecasts: one for cloud and one for activity. You need both to line up, and the cloud usually decides. Learn to read them and you will know by late afternoon whether your Reykjavik Northern Lights reservation has a chance tonight.
Nothing on either map can promise the lights. No tour offers a guaranteed sighting, and a high number is not one either. What the forecast gives you is odds.
The Icelandic Met Office publishes its aurora forecast on vedur.is. The page opens on a map of Iceland with a number in the corner. The map is cloud. The number is activity. You read them in that order, because the aurora "requires dark and partly clear skies".
The same page gives the times of sunset, darkness, sunrise and moonrise, and they are valid for Reykjavík. That tells you when the sky is dark enough, and whether the moon is up.
On the cloud map, green areas are cloudy and white areas are clear. You are looking for white within reach of Reykjavík during the dark hours. Step through the hours: a gap that opens at 23:00 is as useful as one that is there at 21:00.
This is the map the guides live by. When a hunt drives east instead of south, it is chasing white on this map. If the whole south-west is green all night, expect the evening to be called off.
The number in the corner is the Met Office's forecast of auroral activity at midnight, on a scale of 0 to 9. Higher means more activity. It says nothing about cloud.
NOAA's Kp index also runs from 0 to 9. Treat both the same way: a higher number improves your odds, but no number guarantees northern lights. A low number under a clear sky can still give you a show; a high one under cloud gives you nothing.
The Met Office gives its activity number for midnight. NOAA says the aurora is usually best within an hour or two of it, between 22:00 and 02:00. That is the window the hunts are built around: they leave in the evening, drive out of the light, and are out in the dark when the odds are best.
If you are watching on your own, the same window applies. Check the cloud map for those hours, not only for the moment you look.
Each operator reads the same maps in the late afternoon and makes a go or no-go call. The timing and the channel differ by tour. Here is what the tours themselves set out:
| Tour | When you hear | How | If it is called off |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Lights and Stargazing Small-Group Tour with Local Guide | 18:30 | A message through your booking | Another date or a full refund |
| Northern Lights Small-Group Tour with Hot Chocolate & Photos | In the afternoon | An e-mail | Another night; a refund only if it never runs while you are in Iceland |
| Northern Lights Superjeep Tour from Reykjavik | Around 17:00 | You call +354 569 8000 | Another evening free; a refund only if every night is cancelled |
| Northern Lights Midnight Adventure Small-Group from Reykjavík | Not stated | Not stated | Another date or a full refund; a tour that ran is not refunded |
| Northern Lights Cruise from Downtown Reykjavik | It can be called off at short notice | Not stated | Not stated |
If you have heard nothing an hour before your pickup, check your spam folder, then use the contact number in your confirmation.
These are two different outcomes, and your fare treats them differently.
So a cloudy night is not a loss if your fare has a retry and you have nights left. Book early in your stay.
Each card shows what the fare does if the sky stays shut, from unlimited retries to none.
The two maps, the scales and the Reykjavík times are the Icelandic Met Office's. The Kp index and the best hours are NOAA's. Each operator's go or no-go practice comes from its own tour details, saved on 23 September 2026. The rest is read 23 September 2026.
Three to five hours in an air-conditioned minibus of 18 at most, with hot chocolate and free photos, a free retry if you see nothing, and a free reschedule if weather cancels.
From $135 per person
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Three to five hours in a modified super jeep of 14 at most, with a stargazing telescope, homemade hot chocolate, photos of you, and unlimited retries within two years.
From $221 per person
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Two hours on the bay from the Old Harbour, with observation decks, a restroom and Wi-Fi on board; drinks and snacks are sold. Arrive 30 minutes early.
From $86 per person
Check AvailabilityNext: see which months are dark enough, check the retry terms fare by fare, or compare every fare on Reykjavik Northern Lights Tours.